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Literature and Research Materials
Aberdeen has produced a number of research and whitepaper reports.
Featured paper
Make a home for residential in your portfolio
- Institutional demand for residential investment opportunities is on the rise.
- The residential sector has historically offered high risk-adjusted returns and diversification benefits.
- Attractive demographics and stable fundamentals support market timing and the current outlook.
- However, the sector is popular with investors; rental growth assumptions are strong and capital is accumulating in key markets, which is creating sources of performance risk.
Download Make a home for residential in your portfolio
| Date |
Title |
Description |
Download |
| April 2016 |
A home for investment - unpicking Europe's investible residential sectors |
Private rented residential is by far the most attractive and investible residential subsector. It experiences very strong demand, constrained supply and can deliver very secure income that should grow steadily. The private rented sector in Germany alone is bigger than the investible markets in social housing, care homes, student halls and serviced apartments throughout Europe put together. For any European multi-sector residential portfolio, the private rented sector has to be the key constituent. We also think student halls and senior living offer some opportunities. |
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| February 2016 |
House prices - the only way is up? |
Rising house prices, on a global scale, have sparked fears of a property bubble in the making. Assessing whether house prices are over stretched is not straightforward. Simple rules of thumb are often used to measure housing affordability, such as the ratio of house prices to average incomes. Such rules may have worked for certain countries for specific time periods, but there is little evidence that prices revert to historical norms on a regular basis. |
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| Date |
Title |
Description |
Request for Research |
| December 2015 |
German residential investment view |
We see German residential property as close to fundamental value at a national level. While construction activity is increasing at a national level, demand is outstripping supply. With exceptionally low yields on government bonds, quantitative easing (QE) looks set to increase prices in the short term. We view the German rental sector as very attractive for long-term investors. |
Request |
| November 2015 |
De-risking Asian property and accessing its growth |
Property investing risks in Asia Pacific’s developed markets are similar to Europe and North America while also offering investors exposure to high potential growth. Developed APAC markets are becoming less risky due to rapid growth in the number of large financially strong local corporates. Matching the expansion of the occupier base, there is a structural rise in domestic institutional capital which is translating into rising demand for APAC’s income-producing property. This is an important development that creates property market depth, and gives overseas investors multiple exit options when they seek to sell. |
Request |
| November 2015 |
Where is the value in Austrian property |
Some of the best and more investible opportunities in Austria are in logistics and dominant well-anchored retail parks. There is a pronounced lack of high quality logistics stock in Austria and vacancy rates for such stock are very low. Dominant well-anchored retail parks have attractive yields and offer some potential for rental growth from a relatively low rental base. We also like retail assets on the prime pitches of the ‘Golden U’ in Vienna, which offer opportunities for strong rental growth; stock is very rarely traded, though. Prime offices are very expensive and office rental growth has been very weak over the long term. |
Request |
| September 2015 |
What's so special about the Nordics Q3 2015 |
Healthy public finances, stable political environments, limited structural risks, clearly defined property rights and low levels of corruption are some of the reasons why investors consider the Nordic property market to be safer. While the four countries have similarities in their social, economic and political systems, each country has its own main industries, which makes economic performance less synchronised. The Nordic region is the fourth largest property investment market in Europe and has made significant improvements in terms of transparency, professionalism and liquidity over the past decade. |
Request |
| September 2015 |
Time to re-visit the Indian property market |
India presents a strong opportunity for global property investors but it is not a low risk option. That said, it is now more balanced and there are greater investment options than in 2005 when the market was first opened to offshore capital. We believe that income-producing offices in strong market locations offer the lowest risk investment opportunity over the next five years. A housing development strategy focused on the expanding middleclass population is also appealing, given a defined exit strategy based upon sales to end users. However, sourcing land for residential projects is becoming more difficult in major cities. We expect greater opportunities to emerge for middle-class housing as reputable developers enter the market in greater numbers, attracted by the sector’s ability to generate sustained sales. |
Request |
| September 2015 |
Europe’s investible residential landscape |
Europe’s investible residential landscape Demand for private rented residential is very positive, particularly in the Nordic capitals, major German cities, London and Amsterdam. Strong population growth, later marriage, shrinking household size and the sheer cost of buying in some markets have all contributed to demand while development levels are not keeping up with demand growth. Pricing and affordability vary considerably across Europe, while Germany stands out as the largest investible residential market in Europe by far. Private rented apartments have considerable cross-border similarities and the operational skills are likely to be interchangeable across countries. Accessing stock is likely to prove competitive but forward-funding developments are a potential solution for investors. |
Request |
| July 2015 |
Continental drift: Why US capital is drifting towards European real estate |
US real estate capital is drifting towards European real estate in search of new opportunities and we think for good reason. European markets look attractive from a fundamental value perspective and, as such, should offer higher projected returns. As the macroeconomic conditions improve across the Eurozone, accompanied by attractive valuations, opportunities should arise offering attractive risk-adjusted returns that can be the hallmark of long-term value investing. In the absence of complete foresight and respecting that regional leadership in returns tends to vary over time, we believe European real estate offers US investors a compelling investment opportunity to de-risk portfolios. |
Request |
| March 2015 |
How will the oil crash affect real estate markets? |
The sharp and unexpected crash in the oil price has had an impact on all asset classes. With Brent crude having fallen below USD50, the IMF has issued a warning that deflation, not inflation, is now the greatest threat to the world economy. The fall in the energy price is the biggest single contributor to deflationary pressures. This report looks at the impact of low oil prices on global real estate markets, with a special focus on Norway - Europe’s largest oil producer. |
Request |
| March 2015 |
German residential investment view |
German residential property remains close to fundamental value and we continue to see good value in the sector, although local market knowledge and good stock selection remain essential. A lack of residential supply in Germany’s key cities is forcing rents higher for new builds and existing stock. Short and longer-term drivers for rent and capital growth are good overall, but vary considerably between local markets. Given the further pressure quantitative easing will bring to institutional property investment markets, a further increase in values is likely. |
Request |
| January 2015 |
Buy land, they’re not making it any more |
This paper looks at four types of land: Agriculture, Forestry, Ground Rents and Strategic Land (for development). Of the types of land analysed, Agricultural land appears to offer the most potential for conservative, income focused, European investors. Strategic land offers the potential for much stronger returns, and is more suited to opportunistic or very long-term investors. Forestry on its own is unviable as a major investment opportunity as it is a relatively small investment segment where assets are typically tightly held, with lot sizes that are small scale in nature. Ground rents are an extremely secure form of income with additional benefits in the form of ancillary income from property services and lease extensions. |
Request |
| January 2015 |
Climbing onto the housing ladder in Australia |
Against the risk of Australian house prices becoming overpriced, we believe institutional investors should tap into growing medium-term housing demand by debt funding new development. Debt funding of developers is relatively low risk due to pre-sale requirements to de-risk projects. Equity participation in development is higher risk due to its greater vulnerability to a market downturn, and is our least preferred option for investing into the residential market. |
Request |
| Date |
Title |
Description |
Request for Research |
| November 2014 |
Deflated expectations? |
Against an appreciable risk that the Eurozone will fall into deflation, this paper looks at the potential impact on property markets in the region. |
Request |
| July 2014 |
How to invest in property in global 'winning cities' |
The world’s most prominent cities are experiencing rapid population growth and increasing affluence, attracting both capital and highly skilled employees on an increasingly international basis. This has created strong opportunities in the retail, residential and logistics sectors, which have delivered stronger performance and lower volatility than the office sector. |
Request |
| May 2014 |
Finland: Hunting for yield in the land of a thousand lakes |
The high income return from Finnish property combined with a relatively stable outlook for income growth leads to an attractive position with regard to aggregate market pricing. |
Request |
| May 2014 |
German residential Q1 2014: is talk of bubbles just hot air? |
Whilst the recent growth in the German residential market is strong within a historic context, our broad conclusion is that the market is close to fair value and certainly not markedly overpriced. Demographic trends, especially in the major cities, are strong and improving, German household finances are robust and development levels are not keeping up with demand. |
Request |
| March 2014 |
Navigating Spain’s pain; is there value for core investors? |
Despite compelling value in the Spanish property market in aggregate, core property opportunities are more limited and better opportunities may lie in the value-added and opportunistic spheres, although local expertise is required and many non-locals are likely to be inadequately resourced. |
Request |
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